Credit & Bankruptcy Risk Analysis

In-depth financial analysis of major companies, examining bankruptcy risk, credit health, and default probability. Updated regularly as market conditions evolve.

Featured Analysis

Nuclear Power & Clean Energy

Constellation Energy (CEG): Nuclear Power Leader Fueling AI Data Center Demand

Published January 4, 2026 | Last Updated January 4, 2026

Constellation Energy holds solid investment-grade ratings (Baa1/BBB+) as America's largest nuclear operator with 21 reactors powering 16 million homes. The company has secured transformative 20-year PPAs with Microsoft (835 MW Three Mile Island restart) and Meta (1.1 GW Clinton), positioning it as the essential power supplier for AI infrastructure. With $121B market cap, ~12x interest coverage, and the pending $26.6B Calpine acquisition, Constellation benefits from AI demand without bearing infrastructure execution risk.

Credit Ratings: Baa1/BBB+ (Investment Grade)
Interest Coverage: ~12x
Bankruptcy Risk: Low (<5%)
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Enterprise Technology

Microsoft (MSFT): AAA Credit Rating & AI Infrastructure Investment Analysis

Published January 3, 2026 | Last Updated January 3, 2026

Microsoft represents the gold standard for corporate credit quality with perfect AAA/Aaa ratings from all three major agencies. With $102 billion in cash, $78 billion annual free cash flow, and 54x interest coverage, Microsoft can fund its $80+ billion AI infrastructure program from operations rather than debt. Analysis examines why Microsoft maintains elite credit status despite massive capex, contrasting with peers like Oracle and CoreWeave whose credit deteriorates under similar AI investments.

Credit Ratings: AAA/Aaa (All Agencies)
Interest Coverage: 54x
Bankruptcy Risk: Negligible (<0.1%)
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Photonics & Optical Components

Coherent Corp (COHR): Moderate Credit Risk with 2029 Maturity Wall

Published December 19, 2025 | Last Updated December 19, 2025

Coherent Corp presents moderate bankruptcy risk with Z-Score of 1.75 placing it in the distress zone, positioned between CoreWeave's high-risk 0.66 and Oracle's safer 2.49-3.70. With $3.7B debt, $909M cash, and credit ratings of BB (Fitch) / B1 (Moody's), the photonics leader faces a critical $990M maturity in December 2029. Strong FY2025 performance (revenue $5.81B, up 23%) and active deleveraging ($437M debt reduction) demonstrate improving trajectory, but capital intensity and cyclical datacenter exposure warrant monitoring.

Altman Z-Score: 1.75 (Distress Zone)
Credit Ratings: BB (Fitch) / B1 (Moody's)
December 2029 Maturity: $990M (4-year runway)
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AI Infrastructure

Applied Digital (APLD): August 2026 Refinancing Crisis & CoreWeave Dependency

Published December 19, 2025 | Last Updated December 19, 2025

Applied Digital faces elevated bankruptcy risk with Z-Score of 0.42-2.59 and a critical $375M debt maturity in August 2026 with only $74M cash on hand. Despite $11-16B in contracted revenue from CoreWeave, the company exhibits extreme customer concentration (100% HPC), negative working capital (-$344M), and negative operating cash flow (-$115M). The August 2026 refinancing is make-or-break for survival.

Altman Z-Score: 0.42-2.59 (Distress/Grey Zone)
Current Ratio: 0.65x
August 2026 Maturity: $375M (only $74M cash)
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AI Infrastructure

CoreWeave: Bankruptcy Risk Analysis & Credit Event Outlook

Published December 15, 2025 | Last Updated December 15, 2025

CoreWeave presents the rare case of a company with explosive revenue growth (130%+ YoY) that simultaneously exhibits classic distress signals. With a Z-Score of 0.66 placing it firmly in the bankruptcy danger zone, and carrying over $16 billion in debt, CoreWeave's survival depends on continued access to capital markets and sustained AI demand.

Altman Z-Score: 0.66 (Deep Distress)
Interest Coverage: 0.2x
Debt/Equity: 361%
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Enterprise Software

Oracle: Bankruptcy Risk Analysis & Credit Deterioration Outlook

Published December 16, 2025 | Last Updated December 16, 2025

Oracle Corporation presents the unusual case of a mature, cash-generative software giant experiencing rapid credit deterioration due to transformational AI infrastructure investments. With a Z-Score of 2.49-3.70 and investment-grade ratings, near-term bankruptcy risk is minimal, but the company's $35-50 billion annual capex program will drive leverage toward 6-8x by FY2028.

Altman Z-Score: 2.49-3.70 (Grey/Safe Zone)
Interest Coverage: 6.2x
Net Debt/EBITDA: ~4.0x
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AI Infrastructure & Bitcoin Mining

IREN Limited: Bankruptcy Risk Analysis & Execution Risk Outlook

Published December 18, 2025 | Last Updated December 18, 2025

IREN Limited presents the opposite end of the AI infrastructure spectrum from distressed credits. With a Z-Score of 7.84 and strong credit fundamentals (18-22x interest coverage, net cash position), bankruptcy risk is low at 5-10%. However, execution risk on the $9.7B Microsoft contract and $5.8B GPU deployment creates high equity volatility. This is a growth story with execution risk, not a credit story.

Altman Z-Score: 7.84 (Safe Zone)
Interest Coverage: 18-22x
Default Probability: 5-10% (5-year)
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Our Analysis Methodology

Our bankruptcy risk analyses combine quantitative financial metrics with qualitative assessment of business fundamentals, market position, and credit market signals. Learn more about our credit risk analysis framework in our comprehensive guide.

Quantitative Analysis

  • Altman Z-Score - Statistical bankruptcy prediction model
  • Liquidity Ratios - Current ratio, quick ratio, cash runway
  • Leverage Metrics - Debt/equity, debt/EBITDA, net leverage
  • Coverage Ratios - Interest coverage, debt service coverage
  • Cash Flow Analysis - Operating cash flow, free cash flow trends

Learn how to analyze credit metrics →

Qualitative Factors

  • Business Model - Competitive position, market dynamics
  • Customer Concentration - Revenue diversification risks
  • Management Quality - Track record, insider activity
  • Industry Trends - Secular tailwinds or headwinds
  • Credit Market Signals - CDS spreads, credit ratings

Read our guide to credit analysis →

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